The Nifty is above 200 DMA, how crucial is that and could this really be the turning point?
We tested the 200 day simple moving average yesterday and closed just below that, and today the crucial levels would be 5682 to about 5692. The Nifty needs to sustain above this 10-point range. Even if there was to be an initial dip, it must move up to suggest that there would be an upswing further. But going forward, there is a minor resistance at 5710 to 5715, and a huge resistance between 5740 and 5760 levels. I would, however, not like to write an obituary of this short-term uptrend just now for the simple reason if you look at the March 5700 puts, they have added 23,59,100 shares yesterday and this kind of put writing 5700, the closing is below that, yet 23,60,000 shares have been written and the premium is a poultry, 40.4, that means you have a very small premium, yet you have written such puts.
Therefore, there is an expectation that the market can move up from here and I would not like to ride the momentum so early. So, there is a possibility that you can fall to 5660 to about 5640, but unless you fall below 5660 decisively, you are not going much down and if you go further down 5620, there could be a short-term top around 1st or 4th of April as there would be auto numbers coming up then. After that, this humungous upswing that we have seen in the past five days might well be corrected. Now, there could be a minor consolidation, bias still is up but there is a possibility of a throw back corrective swing on the downside.
We tested the 200 day simple moving average yesterday and closed just below that, and today the crucial levels would be 5682 to about 5692. The Nifty needs to sustain above this 10-point range. Even if there was to be an initial dip, it must move up to suggest that there would be an upswing further. But going forward, there is a minor resistance at 5710 to 5715, and a huge resistance between 5740 and 5760 levels. I would, however, not like to write an obituary of this short-term uptrend just now for the simple reason if you look at the March 5700 puts, they have added 23,59,100 shares yesterday and this kind of put writing 5700, the closing is below that, yet 23,60,000 shares have been written and the premium is a poultry, 40.4, that means you have a very small premium, yet you have written such puts.
Therefore, there is an expectation that the market can move up from here and I would not like to ride the momentum so early. So, there is a possibility that you can fall to 5660 to about 5640, but unless you fall below 5660 decisively, you are not going much down and if you go further down 5620, there could be a short-term top around 1st or 4th of April as there would be auto numbers coming up then. After that, this humungous upswing that we have seen in the past five days might well be corrected. Now, there could be a minor consolidation, bias still is up but there is a possibility of a throw back corrective swing on the downside.
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